Aloha,
Here's the short version. Mortgage rates just climbed back above 7%, national home sales are stuck in neutral, and prices are still inching up anyway. Meanwhile, Maui condo sales jumped 56% in September. The mainland headlines and the island reality are telling two different stories, and if you own here or want to, the gap between them is worth understanding.
Let's walk through what's real.
The national market is parked in a holding pattern
Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS. That's up 1.5% from August but down 2.2% from a year ago, and August and September were the two slowest months of 2026.
Zoom out and the picture gets clearer. Sales dropped from more than 6 million a year in 2021 to about 4 million by the end of 2023, and they've hovered there ever since. We've seen this movie before. After the 2006 to 2008 drop, sales flatlined for several years before the recovery finally showed up.
Speculation: If history keeps rhyming, 2027 looks like a stabilizing year, with a real pickup in activity more likely in 2028 or later.
Rates are back above 7%, and that's not the end of the world
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average crossed 7% on September 24 for the first time since January 2025. It hit 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% by mid-October. A year ago it was about 6.34%.
That stings. But here's some perspective from 20 years on this island: 7% is not historically unusual. The 3% era was the outlier, not the baseline. And here in West Maui, a lot of my buyers pay cash or trade in through a 1031 exchange, so rates move them far less than they move a first-time buyer on the mainland.
Prices keep rising nationally, just slowly
The national median existing-home price was $417,500 in September, up 1.3% from a year ago. That's the 39th straight month of year-over-year gains. Even with 7% rates, prices haven't cracked. They've just stopped sprinting.
The country still isn't building enough homes
You may have heard that new construction is almost back on track. The latest numbers say otherwise. U.S. housing starts fell to a 1,221,000 annual rate in September, down 5.2% from August and the third monthly decline in a row. Single-family starts dropped to 859,000, the lowest in a year.
On Maui, supply is tighter still. We're rebuilding Lahaina, and the county's plan to phase vacation rentals out of apartment-zoned buildings is reshaping which condos can rent short-term. I track every update on that at mauicondorentals.com so you don't have to read council agendas on vacation.
Maui isn't the mainland
Here's where it gets interesting. According to the REALTORS Association of Maui, September looked like this county-wide:
Condos: 72 sales (up 56.5% from September 2025), median price $660,000 (up 1.1%)
Single-family homes: 52 sales (down 7.1%), median price $1,150,000 (down 11.0%)
Condo buyers are back. September continued a run that started this summer, with 88 condo sales in June and 81 in July. On the single-family side, the lower median partly reflects where homes sold, not just what they sold for.
What this means for you
If you own in West Maui and you're thinking about selling or repositioning: buyers are active, but they're deliberate. Condos across the county have been taking around four months to sell. The listings that move are the ones priced right on day one, with the building's financials, insurance and rental status buttoned up before the first showing.
If you're buying a second home: you have more choice and more negotiating room than you did two or three years ago. Before you fall for the view, look hard at the building. Reserves, insurance costs, special assessments and short-term rental status will matter more to your next ten years than the color of the lanai.
Your turn
If you own on the West Side: are you holding, selling or trading up in 2027? Tell me in the comments, or call me at 808-250-1163. I'm always happy to talk story about your building.
Mahalo,
Keri
Keri Nicholson, REALTOR Broker, RB-24151
Coldwell Banker Island Properties
808-250-1163 | https://westmauihomesales.com/
Market data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and is subject to change.
Sources
NAR, Existing-Home Sales, September 2026: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-increased-1-5-in-september-according-to-nar-report&source=gmail&ust=1793138254366000&sa=E
Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate (via FRED): https://www.google.com/url?q=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g%3D1XU7Y&source=gmail&ust=1793138254366000&sa=E
U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, September 2026: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst_202609.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1793138254366000&sa=E
Maui Now / REALTORS Association of Maui, September 2026: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://mauinow.com/2026/10/09/maui-county-condo-sales-jump-in-september-as-single-family-sales-decline/&source=gmail&ust=1793138254366000&sa=E
Coldwell Banker Island Properties, July 2026 Maui Market Report: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://blog.islandproperties.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Maui-Market-Report-July-26.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1793138254366000&sa=E
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